CALGARY REAL ESTATE MARKET: NOVEMBER 2018
Quick Guide to The Calgary Real Estate Market
BY REALTORS® AT RENZO REAL ESTATE
As Calgary REALTORS® at our real estate brokerage, we are continually examining the market and looking for trends throughout Calgary. Moving into November is always an interesting month in Calgary real estate as we are beginning to move out of the fall months and into the winter months. It is a transition month where we can see some natural shifts in buying patterns. From a market standpoint, it is common to see persistent sales in the fall as buyers work to lock down a property before the snowy season. Once we move into the winter months, sales usually drop off, as do listings.
Here is the natural real estate cycle we have seen in Calgary over the past five years.
This is an interesting graph as it clearly shows the easing of sales in Calgary over the past 4 years. That said, it’s also clear that the bottom hasn’t fallen out beneath us. Sales are still occurring, however, in comparison to 2014, the market feels sluggish.
Now, let superimpose Calgary real estate listings on this graph to see how inventory levels are impacting our market.
Again, it’s clear listings continue to rise while sales fall. The upward trend in listings is impacted by the lower number of sales, but it’s also clear the positive trend line for the number of new listings over the past few years is outpacing the negative trend of sales. This directly impacts months of inventory and can be an indicator of what is to come over the winter months.
It’s also clear the positive trend line for the number of new listings over the past few years is outpacing the negative trend of sales
Let’s look at a few market statistics over the last month.
Year to Date Sales: Down 15.16%
Year to Date Inventory: Up 34.98%
Months of Supply: Up 59.1% to 4.34 Months
Year to Date Benchmark Price: Down 1.05%
The entry and mid-price detached product in Calgary have been the glimmer of hope and a statistic that most held to as the one property type that is “hanging in there”. Over the course of the last few months, we have seen easing in this category as well. The largest decline is in the $600,000 - $1,000,000.
For detached homes, certain areas were showing signs of insulation over the past few years as well. Specifically the North East, North West, and South had the smallest amount of change over the past few years, however, we did see the largest benchmark price drop in these areas (Year/Year) this last month.
If you are selling a detached home, be prepared for slowing showings and understand that you need to price competitively. This is still the most active product type in Calgary, so there are buyers out there but pay close attention to your competitors.
Year to Date Sales: Down 6.50%
Year to Date Inventory: Up 0.75%
Months of Supply: Up 7.75% to 7.19 Months
Year to Date Benchmark Price: Down 2.77%
The apartment sector has been quite interesting over the past few months. Year over Year and Year to Date new listings have decreased and inventory has eased. This is a welcomed trend for the apartment condo sector in Calgary that has sustained one of the largest blows over the previous years.
That said, there is still a modest rise in months of supply and year to date inventory as the sales are down over 6% year to date.
Year to Date Sales: Down 15..05%
Year to Date Inventory: Up 29.05%
Months of Supply: Up 51.92% to 5.86 Months
Year to Date Benchmark Price: Down 1.08%
This sector is interesting as there some commonalities with the detached product on a year to date basis. Sales are down and inventory is up with large gains in months of supply, however, prices have only adjusted by 1%. Compare this to the apartment sector where prices are down almost 3% but the year to date sales are not down as far and the inventory levels are relatively stable. It’s important to note that for some of the attached product and detached product, the decrease in sales and the large jump in inventory is relatively new. Therefore, we could be in for some large adjustments in the winter months if we continue on this path.
Therefore, we could be in for some large adjustments in the winter months if we continue on this path
As we move into the winter months, sellers will need to be price conscious and marketing needs to be flawless. Stay in communication with your REALTOR® as you move through the listing process so you can be best aligned in the market. Failure to adjust to the market conditions could lead to a long slow winter of sparse showings. However, if you analyze your community market and pay very close attention to your competition, there are still buyers out there. These buyers can be slower moving so do keep your spirits up and keep your home in pristine condition because the next buyer could be the one!