Calgary Real Estate Market: December 2018

CALGARY REAL ESTATE MARKET: DECEMBER 2018


Quick Guide to The Calgary Real Estate Market, News, and Trends


BY REALTORS® AT RENZO REAL ESTATE

The REALTORS® at Renzo Real Estate in Calgary have been combing through the most recent community and area market data and there were some notable changes to highlight in November 2018. As we move into the winter months, it’s common to see a swing in numbers as buyers tend to slow their searches. Furthermore, sellers can hesitate to come on the market in November and December as they don’t want to sit on the market without any action.

Let’s first take a look at what the data tells us when we are looking at listing in the winter months vs spring/summer months. The following is market data for all of Calgary from October 2017 to November 2018. As you can see the bar graphs indicate sales and new listings.

 Calgary Real Estate Market: Sales and New Listings

Calgary Real Estate Market: Sales and New Listings

The blue line perfectly shows the number of sales over the year with peaks in the spring months and valleys in the winter months. This, likely, doesn’t come as a surprise as fewer buyers are interested in moving when it is freezing outside. In contrast, the green line shows seller thinking patterns (and desire to move). You will note that more sellers are coming on the market in the spring months and there are more sales in the springs months.


Ok, that all makes sense but things are about to get very interesting! Look at these two lines in conjunction with each other. Specifically, look at the spread between new listings and sales at different times of the year.

 Calgary Real Estate Market: New Listings and Sales Spread

Calgary Real Estate Market: New Listings and Sales Spread

Look at the spread between new listings and sales in December 2017 to that of May 2018. You can see that there are fewer sales but there are much fewer new listings. This means that you are less likely to have the same amount of competition in the winter months! It is important to note that the new mortgage rules came into effect in January of 2018, so there may have been a rush to purchase in December 2017. We can’t know if the figures will be the same this year, however, this data is encouraging for winter sellers.

Timing the market is nearly impossible, but looking at the figures can help both sellers and buyers make the best real estate decisions.


Knowing that, let’s look at what has happened over the last month.

 Calgary Real Estate Market: December 2018 Numbers

Calgary Real Estate Market: December 2018 Numbers

As we move through the data, this month we will compare much of the data to the same time last year. Reason being, when we move into the winter months, looking at what happened the month before, doesn’t give us the most relevant data.

Overall, this year, the Calgary real estate market has sustained a 14% drop in sales this year, furthermore, citywide benchmark prices dropped by 1% this month (and 3% over last year). This year, we have seen a slight increase in sales that are priced below $200,000 and the largest decrease in the number of sales is in the price range $600,000 - $1,000,0000.


Detached Homes in Calgary

November 2017 compared to November 2018

New Listings: 3.03% decrease

Sales: 22% decrease

Inventory: 26% increase

Months of Inventory: 62.5% increase (to 5.14 months)

In the detached market, there were fewer new listings than the same time last year! This would be viewed as a positive change in the real estate market. However, don’t discount that we also sustained at 22% decrease in sales, so the inventory still jumped substantially. It is great to see fewer new listings, but without a sharp increase in sales, we will likely continue to see downward pressure on prices for the months to come.  

Attached Homes in Calgary

November 2017 compared to November 2018

New Listings: 2.23% decrease

Sales: 19% decrease

Inventory: 18.9% increase

Months of Inventory: 47% increase (to 6.72 months)

In the attached market (row and semi-detached), there were a lot of similarities to the detached market. New listings did fall compared to this time last year, however, the sales fell quite a bit further leading to an overall increase in inventory and a rise in months of inventory. As with detached, the downward price pressure continues on this product type in the Calgary real estate market.


Apartment Condos in Calgary

November 2017 compared to November 2018

New Listings: 22% decrease

Sales: 7.14% increase

Inventory: 11.9% decrease

Months of Inventory: 17.7% increase (to 5.49 months)

Now, this is a big shift! Is it easier to sell a condominium this month compared to the same time last year, according to the data, yes it is! Of course, this is just what the data is showing and we can’t paint every condo with the same brush, but we did see an increase in sales and a decrease in inventory and months of supply. It has been a long time since the condo market has seen signs of hope. However, we can’t say we are out of a downturn yet. All it would take is a few more listings, and the tables would quickly turn. Potentially more owners are deciding not to list. If they all choose to list in the coming months, this change could be negated. Also, there is still downward pressure on prices as prices fell by over 2% year to date.

Conclusion

It was an interesting month in the real estate market. When compared to last year, new listings did ease, however, sales have dropped further. This drop in sales shows that there are very few buyers that are out there purchasing homes. They could be on the sidelines waiting or there could just be very few buyers in the market. Chances are it is a combination of both. That said, we did see an increase in sales in the apartment condo sector and a decrease in months of inventory compared to this time last month, but we are still higher on a year to date basis.

Sellers: If you are selling, keep in mind that there can be less competition this time of year, so it can be a great time to list. Often times you will receive fewer showings, but the buyers that come through are usually serious. Consult the number of new listings, sales, and inventory levels over the previous winter months in your community to get a deeper understanding.

Buyers: The inventory is continuing to rise in the detached sector and the attached sector. However, the new listings are easing slightly. Downward pressure continues on prices as inventory rises, but if new listings continue to decrease and sales were to increase, we could see a slight shift in consumer confidence.